태풍이동경로 업테이트(DEC.6.5PM)(6)

Typhoon HAGUPIT (RUBY) Update Number 014

WEATHER.COM.PH TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATES

TYPHOON HAGUPIT (RUBY) UPDATE NUMBER 014
Issued at: 7:15 PM PhT (11:15 GMT) Saturday 06 December 2014
Next Update: Sunday Early Morning, 07 December 2014

Typhoon HAGUPIT (RUBY) continues losing strength as it drifts westward, closer to Eastern and Northern Samar. The potential landfall area of this cyclone is over or very near the towns of Oras and Arteche in Eastern Samar, between 8PM-12MN tonight.

This typhoon will continue to enhance the Northeast Monsoon (Hanging Amihan) - bringing mostly cloudy and windy conditions and cooler temperatures across Northern and Central Luzon...becoming more frequent with possible occasional slight to moderate rains along eastern sections of Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, and Northern Quezon. The threat of flash floods and landslides are likely in hazard-prone areas especially along river banks and mountain slopes of the affected areas. Residents are advised to take necessary precautions.

Residents and visitors along Southern Luzon, Visayas and Northeastern Mindanao should closely monitor the development of Hagupit (Ruby).

Information based on data collected by WeatherPhilippines Foundation, Inc. shall not be taken as official data. Weather information broadcasted and distributed by PAGASA remains as official data. WeatherPhilippines shall not be responsible for the private use and reliance of its weather information.

CYCLONE HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

Below are the regions or places in the Philippines that could be affected or that are being affected by the hazards generated by the current tropical cyclone.

RAINFALL

• Heavy to Extreme Rains (150 mm or more): Samar Provinces, Leyte, Sorsogon, Albay, Masbate, Romblon, northern portions of Capiz and Iloilo, extreme northern part of Negros Occidental, and Northern Cebu. - tonight through Sunday afternoon (Dec 07). Read more...

• Heavy Rains (100 mm to 150 mm): Southern part of Camarines Sur, Aklan incl. Tablas Is., rest of Capiz and Iloilo, rest of northern part of Negros Occidental, northern portion of Southern Cebu, Bohol, Southern Leyte, and Dinagat and Siargao Islands. - tonight through Sunday evening (Dec 07). Read more...

• Moderate to Heavy Rains (30-50 mm): Rest of Bicol, Southern Quezon, rest of Visayas, and Northeastern Mindanao. - beginning Saturday morning Dec (06) through Sunday evening (Dec 07). Read more...

WINDS

• Typhoon Force Winds (Gusts of more than 130 kph): Most parts of Samar Provinces, Sorsogon, Southen Albay, Masbate, Burias and Ticao Islands, Biliran Island, and eastern portions of Romblon - beginning Saturday afternoon (Dec 06) until Sunday afternoon (Dec 07). Read more...

• Tropical Storm to Typhoon Force Winds (Gusts of 100-130 kph): Rest of Albay, Southern Camarines Sur (Rinconada), Virac, Catanduanes Area, Rest of Romblon, Northern Coastal Areas of Panay, portions of Northern Cebu incl. Bantayan Island, Leyte, and some portions of Southern Samar - beginning Saturday afternoon (Dec 06) until Sunday afternoon (Dec 07). Read more...

• Tropical Storm Force Winds (Gusts of 75-100 kph): Camarines Norte, Rest of Camarines Sur incl. Metro Naga, Eatern portions of Southern Quezon incl. Bondoc Peninsula, Marinduque, some portions of Northern Panay, Rest of Northern Cebu, some portions of Central Cebu incl. Cebu City, Southern Leyte, and some portions of Dinagat Islands - beginning Saturday evening (Dec 06) until Sunday evening (Dec 07). Read more...

STORM SURGE

• Possible coastal storm surge flooding of 4-5.5 m (13-18 ft) above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal, inland lakes and beach front areas of Eastern Visayas and Eastern Bicol Region beginning Saturday afternoon onwards. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Surigao del Norte, Rest of Visayas, Ragay Gulf, Visayan Sea and Eastern Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).

CURRENT CYCLONE INFORMATION

As of 5:00 PM PhT today...0900 GMT...Dec 06.

Classification/Name: TY Hagupit (Ruby)
Location: Near the Northeast Coast of Eastern Samar (near 12.1N 126.3E)
About: 85 km east of Oras, Eastern Samar...or 115 km northeast of Borongan City, Eastern Samar
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min avg): 195 kph near the center...Gustiness: 230 kph
24 hr. Rain Accumulation (near the center outwards): 100 to 400 mm [Heavy to Extreme]
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
Size of Circulation [Convective Cloud-Based, in diameter]: 865 km (Medium)
Area of Damaging Winds (95 kph or more): 120 km from the Center
Past Movement: West @ 10 kph
Forecast Movement: West to WNW @ 12 kph
Towards: Eastern and Northern Samar

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK*

TY Hagupit (Ruby) is expected to move slowly westward during the next 24 hours...turning west-northwestward through 48 hours. On the forecast track, TY Hagupit (Ruby) will make landfall over the northern-eastern coast of Samar, over or very near Oras, Eastern Samar between 8 PM - 12 midnight tonight...then will traverse the Island through Sunday morning. It shall emerge over the Samar Sea...then move along Ticao Island and Northern Masbate, and Romblon on its way towards Northern Mindoro through Monday morning.

TY Hagupit (Ruby) is expected to continue to gradually weaken throughout the outlook period as it interacts with the land masses of Eastern Visayas and Southern Bicol coupled with the entrainment of cold Northeast Monsoon and increased upper-level winds. Advance Intensity Forecast (AIF) shows its 10-minute maximum sustained winds decreasing to 130 kph by Monday afternoon.

The following is the 3-day forecast outlook summary for this system:

SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens after crossing Northern Samar...very near the southern tip of Sorsogon, approaching Ticao Island...about 40 km northeast of Masbate City, Masbate [2PM DEC 07: 12.5N 123.9E @ 150kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens further as it moves west-northwest, onshore across Calapan, Oriental Mindoro......about 70 km east-southeast of Puerto Galera, [2PM DEC 08: 13.3N 121.5E @ 130kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded into a Tropical Storm (TS) as it emerges over the West Philippine Sea after crossing the Northern Coast of Mindoro...about 120 km west-southwest of Lubang Island [2PM DEC 09: 13.6N 119.1E @ 110kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 2 and 3 Forecast Track has an average error of 100 and 250 km respectively...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above hazards summary and forecast outlook changes every 6 to 12 hrs